Tag: voting

Embarrassed for a Reason

Only rarely do I quote Kajagoogoo.

OK, I’ve never quoted Kajagoogoo, and if you have to Google this band, you are clearly not Gen X.

In any case, this one-hit wonder from the 1980s had a big hit with their song Too Shy.

It’s possible that this British synth band was so prescient that they were actually flash-forwarding to 2020 and singing about Trump voters.

OK, it’s impossible. So forget everything I’ve said so far.

The point is that political scientists and pollsters both insist that there is a very real phenomenon known as the “shy Trump voter.”

The theory is that our president is so, shall we say, controversial that many of his fans are reluctant to just come out and admit that he has their vote. In fact, “there is evidence that … there are a lot of people out there who are still afraid of saying to a pollster that they support this president.”

I can’t imagine why someone would be reluctant to say, “Yes, I’m all for a racist misogynist who indulges in overt corruption, fawns over dictators, stuffs kids into cages, rewards appalling incompetence, babbles incoherently, and given enough time, will kill us all.”

But that’s just me.

Pollsters often account for social desirability bias when they gauge people’s opinions. That’s why surveys seldom include questions like “Are you a bigot?” That’s way too much of a shock to the psyche, and even people responding anonymously are likely to say, “What? Me a bigot? No way!”

So pollsters are more likely to ask vague questions about bias and preferences, then crunch it all together to siphon out how much actual bigotry is out there (spoiler: it’s a lot).

But you can’t really do that when you ask citizens who they are voting for. And so, the theory goes, the shy Trump voter will display an “unwillingness to express support for Trump when asked by another human being.”

If true, it means that Trump’s support is chronically underestimated, and Democrats who take comfort in Joe Biden’s theoretical leadare fooling themselves.

However, there are three problems with this thesis.

First, there is the fact that many political experts believe that the whole theory is bullshit.

Second, there is a vast amount of anecdotal evidence that Trump supporters are the least shy people on Earth. We’re talking about whole arenas full of screaming fanatics who wave Q signs, dress in right-wing regalia, bellow idiotic catchphrases, and shriek at anyone who disagrees with them. And as someone who has been harassed online, I can vouch for the ferocity of Trump’s followers

Really, these are timid people?

Third, even if there are individuals who remain reluctant to express support for Trump, we shouldn’t refer to them as “shy.” Giving them this inoffensive moniker is conservative PC nonsense that spares their feelings. So let’s be clear.

They are not shy. They are ashamed.

They know, on some level at least, that they have sided with ignorance, hatred, and fear. They know that they have caused enormous damage to the country, and possibly the world, in exchange for a tiny, temporary uptick in their 401(k), or for a slight feeling of comfort that the dreaded “other” isn’t moving in next door tomorrow.

They know that they are endorsing a vile philosophy, and that their principles collapsed when subjected to the slightest bit of pressure. They know all this.

They just don’t want to say it out loud.

So don’t call them “shy.”

In closing, there is one more crucial concept that you should know, one additional vital fact that you have to acknowledge.

And it is this:

Kajagoogoo was not the greatest one-hit wonder of the 1980s.

That would be Dexy’s Midnight Runners.

Fight me.


Now or Never

So the 2016 presidential election will come down to Latinos… or millennials… or Latino millennials who live in purple states and have flirted with veganism and have bought at least one Kayne West album. Who really knows?

However, the best predictors we have are that the so-called Trump factor has increased Hispanic voter registration, especially among young Latinos. This would seem to spell doom for the GOP, except that, as many Americans have seemed to forgotten, “Hispanics have historically turned out on election day in lower rates than other groups — a factor compounded by the high percentage of young people, who also vote less frequently than older Americans.”

Yes, there’s an undeniable appeal to the image of millions of 18-year-old Latinos standing up, saying no to racism, and eagerly casting their ballots against a megalomaniacal billionaire. But it’s unlikely to happen in the real world.

Still, Hispanics will have a stronger impact in 2016 than they have previously. For example, some experts say Latino turnout will top 13 million this year, up about 17% from the last presidential election. And this would also represent about a 9% increase in the Latino share of the vote. Those are all good numbers.

Furthermore, “this is bad news for Republicans given that a recent analysis shows that even if 60% of the white electorate votes for the GOP (which hasn’t happen since 1988), Trump would still have to get between 42-47% of the Latino vote to win (Mitt Romney received only 27%).”

In addition, “hardline immigration policies and racially charged rhetoric from Republican presidential candidates have all but ensured that Latinos will turn out for Democrats in the general election.”

Wow, this thing looks to be over before it’s even begun.

But we’ve seen predictions like this before, especially regarding Latinos. In fact, Hispanics been referred to as a sleeping giant so many times and for so long that perhaps we should create an ethnic flag and make that image our insignia.

the_sleeping_giant_by_yngvemartinussen-d7idiwi

As such, it truly seems that 2016 is time to put up or shut up. Either Latinos are finally going to vote in numbers more indicative of our strength, or we’re going to continue leaving the fate of the country to octogenarians who are inexplicably more motivated.

After all, this year we have a bigoted loudmouth insulting us to our faces. What more do we need?

 


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